Polymarket implies the Democrat has a 76% chance of winning the seat, while Cook and Sabato both rate this race Toss-Up. Worth watching for either a rating movement or a market correction.
Tier-1 toss-up. Open seat (Evers retiring). Massive Dem primary field includes Barnes who lost 2022 Senate to Ron Johnson. Trump-endorsed Berrien is GOP frontrunner. Premier Republican trifecta target.
Premier pickup opportunity for GOP seeking trifecta in Midwest. Heavy turnout dependence on WOW counties (Waukesha-Ozaukee-Washington) and Milwaukee.
Evers won 2022 with 51.2%. Trump won WI by 0.9 points in 2024. EVEN PVI.
None listed.
Race data merged from Perplexity Pro Deep Research and Gemini Deep Research, both dated 2026-05-05, with cross-source verification. Confidence badges reflect that verification: ✓✓ both sources agree, ✓ single-source, ⚠ sources disagree. Ratings published by Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball; visual treatment is ours, no partnership implied. See /map methodology for the full freshness picture.