South Dakota Governor G-SD-2026 · regular

Open in research →
Cook Political Report
Solid R
As of Apr 16, 2026
✓
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
As of Mar 19, 2026
✓
Polymarket
R 94¢
D 4¢
Refreshed today
R+15
Cook PVI
Incumbent
Larry Rhoden
Republican · running

Race dynamics

Non-competitive general. Competitive GOP primary: Rhoden, Johnson, Hansen.

Macro context

Gemini claims Rhoden 'abruptly terminated his bid' after internal polling showed vulnerability vs. Johnson. Johnson positioned to sweep nomination — but Perplexity contradicts: Rhoden is still running. Manual review needed.

History

Noem/Rhoden won 2022 with 62%. Rhoden ascended when Noem joined Cabinet 2025. R+15.

Top contenders

Larry RhodenIncumbent

Incumbent Governor
Declared
No fundraising data
Sourced: perplexity

Dan Ahlers

Former State Senator
Declared
No fundraising data
Sourced: perplexity

Dusty Johnson

U.S. Representative
Declared
No fundraising data
Sourced: perplexity + gemini

Full candidate field

Republicans (3)

Larry RhodenIncumbent

Incumbent Governor
Declared
No fundraising data
Sourced: perplexity

Dusty Johnson

U.S. Representative
Declared
No fundraising data
Sourced: perplexity + gemini

Jon Hansen

State Representative
Declared
No fundraising data
Sourced: perplexity

Democrats (1)

Dan Ahlers

Former State Senator
Declared
No fundraising data
Sourced: perplexity

Other / Independent (0)

None listed.

Key dates

  • Jun 2, 2026 — primary
  • Nov 3, 2026 — General election

Race data merged from Perplexity Pro Deep Research and Gemini Deep Research, both dated 2026-05-05, with cross-source verification. Confidence badges reflect that verification: ✓✓ both sources agree, ✓ single-source, ⚠ sources disagree. Ratings published by Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball; visual treatment is ours, no partnership implied. See /map methodology for the full freshness picture.