Both forecasters Likely D. Haaland leads early Dem polling per Emerson. Open-seat dynamics introduce some uncertainty but state's D registration advantage holds.
Theoretical opening from term-limit, but Dem voter registration advantages hold.
Lujan Grisham won 2022 with 52%. NM Dems hold structural advantage but oil-region GOP turnout matters.
None listed.
Race data merged from Perplexity Pro Deep Research and Gemini Deep Research, both dated 2026-05-05, with cross-source verification. Confidence badges reflect that verification: ✓✓ both sources agree, ✓ single-source, ⚠ sources disagree. Ratings published by Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball; visual treatment is ours, no partnership implied. See /map methodology for the full freshness picture.