New Hampshire Governor G-NH-2026 · regular

Open in research →
Cook Political Report
Likely R
As of Apr 16, 2026
✓
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely R
As of Mar 19, 2026
✓✓
Polymarket
R 74¢
D 22¢
Refreshed today
D+2
Cook PVI
Incumbent
Kelly Ayotte
Republican · running

Race dynamics

Ayotte raised ~$965K early ($750K cash on hand) to deter challengers. Independent Jon Kiper threatens to siphon working-class Dem voters.

Macro context

Ayotte stockpiling ~$965K early. Kiper independent bid (former 2024 Dem) threatens working-class Dem demographics needed to overcome Ayotte's structural advantages.

History

Ayotte won 2024 with 53.7%. NH's two-year cycle and elastic suburban electorate produce competitive but typically moderate-GOP-friendly outcomes.

Top contenders

Kelly AyotteIncumbent

Incumbent Governor
Declared
Raised $965K as of Mar 31, 2026
Sourced: perplexity + gemini

Cinde Warmington

Former Executive Councilor
Exploring
No fundraising data
Sourced: perplexity

Jon Kiper

Former Dem Candidate
Declared
No fundraising data
Sourced: gemini

Full candidate field

Republicans (1)

Kelly AyotteIncumbent

Incumbent Governor
Declared
Raised $965K as of Mar 31, 2026
Sourced: perplexity + gemini

Democrats (2)

Cinde Warmington

Former Executive Councilor
Exploring
No fundraising data
Sourced: perplexity

Tom Sherman

Former State Senator
Exploring
No fundraising data
Sourced: gemini

Other / Independent (1)

Jon Kiper

Former Dem Candidate
Declared
No fundraising data
Sourced: gemini

Key dates

  • Sep 8, 2026 — primary
  • Nov 3, 2026 — General election

Two-year term

Race data merged from Perplexity Pro Deep Research and Gemini Deep Research, both dated 2026-05-05, with cross-source verification. Confidence badges reflect that verification: ✓✓ both sources agree, ✓ single-source, ⚠ sources disagree. Ratings published by Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball; visual treatment is ours, no partnership implied. See /map methodology for the full freshness picture.