Race dynamics
Open-seat with crowded Dem primary. Sabato shifted from Likely D to Lean D citing potential vulnerability. ME's RCV-style runoff (instant runoff voting in 2018+) complicates modeling.
Macro context
Sabato shifted from Likely D to Lean D citing vulnerability. Rural conservative enclaves ensure aggressive GOP offensive once primaries crystallize.
History
Mills won 2022 with 56% defeating LePage. Maine's elastic electorate has elected populist conservative LePage and moderate Dem Mills.