Race dynamics
Premier Republican pickup opportunity. Lean R from both forecasters. Open seat in R+8 state with experienced GOP field.
Macro context
Premier GOP pickup target. Multiple GOP candidates near $1M raised in early 2025. Brutal internal GOP competition could produce damaged nominee.
History
Kelly won 2022 with 49.5% as a moderate Dem in R+8 state. Open-seat dynamic now favors GOP flip.