Polymarket implies the Democrat has a 66% chance of winning the seat, while Cook rates this race Toss-Up and Sabato rates it Lean R. Worth watching for either a rating movement or a market correction.
Cook moved IA to Toss-Up Apr 9, 2026 citing Sand's enormous cash advantage. Sabato remains Lean R reflecting state's R+6 PVI. Sand has out-raised the entire GOP field combined.
Sabato downgraded from Likely R to Lean R citing threat from Sand, last remaining statewide Democratic officeholder with crossover populist appeal.
Reynolds won 2022 with 58%, but her departure and Sand's strength shifted Cook to Toss-Up on April 9, 2026.
None listed.
Race data merged from Perplexity Pro Deep Research and Gemini Deep Research, both dated 2026-05-05, with cross-source verification. Confidence badges reflect that verification: ✓✓ both sources agree, ✓ single-source, ⚠ sources disagree. Ratings published by Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball; visual treatment is ours, no partnership implied. See /map methodology for the full freshness picture.