Georgia Governor G-GA-2026 · regular

Open in research →
Cook Political Report
Toss-Up
As of Apr 16, 2026
✓✓
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Toss-Up
As of Mar 19, 2026
⚠
Polymarket
R 37¢
D 64¢
Refreshed today
R+1
Cook PVI
Incumbent
Brian Kemp
Republican · term_limited
⚡ Market Divergence

Polymarket implies the Democrat has a 64% chance of winning the seat, while Cook and Sabato both rate this race Toss-Up. Worth watching for either a rating movement or a market correction.

Race dynamics

Tier-1 toss-up. Open seat (Kemp term-limited). AJC poll (Apr 18-26, 2026) shows Bottoms ~29%, Duncan ~17% in Dem primary; Jones ~33% in GOP primary. Duncan's party-switch from GOP Lt. Gov. to Dem candidate is a national story.

Macro context

Duncan's Democratic crossover bid (with IBEW Local 613 endorsement) is a historic test of whether Democratic primary voters will accept a recent Republican executive. Tier-1 Toss-Up; expected to attract hundreds of millions in IE.

History

Kemp won 2022 by 7.5 points over Stacey Abrams in a high-profile contest. Trump won GA by 2.2 points in 2024.

Top contenders

Burt Jones

Lt. Governor
Declared
No fundraising data
Sourced: perplexity

Chris Carr

Attorney General
Declared
No fundraising data
Sourced: perplexity

Geoff Duncan

Former Lt. Governor (party-switcher)
Declared
No fundraising data
Sourced: perplexity + gemini

Full candidate field

Republicans (2)

Burt Jones

Lt. Governor
Declared
No fundraising data
Sourced: perplexity

Chris Carr

Attorney General
Declared
No fundraising data
Sourced: perplexity

Democrats (5)

Geoff Duncan

Former Lt. Governor (party-switcher)
Declared
No fundraising data
Sourced: perplexity + gemini

Jason Esteves

State Senator
Declared
No fundraising data
Sourced: perplexity + gemini

Keisha Bottoms

Former Mayor of Atlanta
Declared/Exploring
No fundraising data
Sourced: gemini

Keisha Lance Bottoms

Former Atlanta Mayor
Declared
No fundraising data
Sourced: perplexity

Michael Thurmond

DeKalb County CEO
Declared
No fundraising data
Sourced: perplexity + gemini

Other / Independent (0)

None listed.

Key dates

  • May 19, 2026 — primary
  • Jun 16, 2026 — runoff
  • Nov 3, 2026 — General election

Race data merged from Perplexity Pro Deep Research and Gemini Deep Research, both dated 2026-05-05, with cross-source verification. Confidence badges reflect that verification: ✓✓ both sources agree, ✓ single-source, ⚠ sources disagree. Ratings published by Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball; visual treatment is ours, no partnership implied. See /map methodology for the full freshness picture.