Florida Governor G-FL-2026 · regular

Open in research →
Cook Political Report
Solid R
As of Apr 16, 2026
✓
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
As of Mar 19, 2026
✓
Polymarket
R 83¢
D 17¢
Refreshed today
R+5
Cook PVI
Incumbent
Ron DeSantis
Republican · term_limited

Race dynamics

Solid R/Safe R despite recent polls showing Donalds vs Jolly within 1-5 points. Casey DeSantis exploration could freeze field. Jolly is GOP-to-Dem party-switcher.

Macro context

Massive high-stakes GOP primary. Casey DeSantis candidacy would freeze field. Aug 18 winner is overwhelming favorite.

History

DeSantis won 2022 by 19.4 points. FL has decisively shed swing-state status.

Top contenders

Byron Donalds

U.S. Representative
Declared
No fundraising data
Sourced: perplexity

Casey DeSantis

First Lady of Florida
Exploring
No fundraising data
Sourced: perplexity + gemini

Charles Burkett

Surfside Mayor
Declared
No fundraising data
Sourced: gemini

Full candidate field

Republicans (6)

Byron Donalds

U.S. Representative
Declared
No fundraising data
Sourced: perplexity

Casey DeSantis

First Lady of Florida
Exploring
No fundraising data
Sourced: perplexity + gemini

Charles Burkett

Surfside Mayor
Declared
No fundraising data
Sourced: gemini

James Fishback

Entrepreneur
Declared
No fundraising data
Sourced: gemini

Jay Collins

Lt. Governor
Declared
No fundraising data
Sourced: perplexity + gemini

Paul Renner

Former FL House Speaker
Declared
No fundraising data
Sourced: perplexity + gemini

Democrats (1)

David Jolly

Former GOP U.S. Rep. (party-switcher)
Declared
No fundraising data
Sourced: perplexity

Other / Independent (0)

None listed.

Key dates

  • Aug 18, 2026 — primary
  • Nov 3, 2026 — General election

Race data merged from Perplexity Pro Deep Research and Gemini Deep Research, both dated 2026-05-05, with cross-source verification. Confidence badges reflect that verification: ✓✓ both sources agree, ✓ single-source, ⚠ sources disagree. Ratings published by Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball; visual treatment is ours, no partnership implied. See /map methodology for the full freshness picture.