Arizona Governor G-AZ-2026 · regular

Open in research →
Cook Political Report
Toss-Up
As of Apr 16, 2026
✓✓
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
As of Mar 19, 2026
✓✓
Polymarket
R 23¢
D 77¢
Refreshed today
R+2
Cook PVI
Incumbent
Katie Hobbs
Democrat · running
⚡ Market Divergence

Polymarket implies the Democrat has a 77% chance of winning the seat, while Cook rates this race Toss-Up and Sabato rates it Lean D. Worth watching for either a rating movement or a market correction.

Race dynamics

Hobbs' fundraising prowess ($15M+ raised through 2025) gives her structural advantages, but Trump's 5-point 2024 win and Biggs' MAGA primary strength create a competitive dynamic. Multiple polls show Hobbs leading 9-10 points in a head-to-head.

Macro context

Hobbs has shattered state records by raising $15 million in non-election cycle. The GOP primary is volatile: Biggs (border/MAGA-aligned), Schweikert, and Robson. Bellwether for national GOP appeal in evolving Sun Belt suburbs.

History

Hobbs won 2022 with 50.3% (the only Democratic-held seat in this group with a sitting incumbent). Trump carried AZ by 5.5 points in 2024.

Top contenders

Katie HobbsIncumbent

Incumbent Governor
Declared
Raised $15.0M as of Dec 31, 2025
Sourced: perplexity + gemini

Andy Biggs

U.S. Representative
Declared
Raised $1.2M as of Dec 31, 2025
Sourced: perplexity + gemini

David Schweikert

U.S. Representative
Declared
No fundraising data
Sourced: perplexity + gemini

Full candidate field

Republicans (3)

Andy Biggs

U.S. Representative
Declared
Raised $1.2M as of Dec 31, 2025
Sourced: perplexity + gemini

David Schweikert

U.S. Representative
Declared
No fundraising data
Sourced: perplexity + gemini

Karrin Robson

Businesswoman
Declared
No fundraising data
Sourced: perplexity + gemini

Democrats (1)

Katie HobbsIncumbent

Incumbent Governor
Declared
Raised $15.0M as of Dec 31, 2025
Sourced: perplexity + gemini

Other / Independent (0)

None listed.

Key dates

  • Aug 4, 2026 — primary
  • Nov 3, 2026 — General election

Race data merged from Perplexity Pro Deep Research and Gemini Deep Research, both dated 2026-05-05, with cross-source verification. Confidence badges reflect that verification: ✓✓ both sources agree, ✓ single-source, ⚠ sources disagree. Ratings published by Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball; visual treatment is ours, no partnership implied. See /map methodology for the full freshness picture.