Texas U.S. Senate S-TX-2026 · Class 2 · Regular cycle

Open in research → Editorial as of Apr 22 · FEC through Mar 31
General 2026-11-03
R Primary 2026-03-03 (held)
Runoff 2026-05-26
Filing Deadline 2025-12-08 (held)
Cook Political Report
Likely R
As of Apr 13, 2026
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely R
As of Mar 4, 2026
Polymarket
R 55¢
D 47¢
Refreshed today
R+6
Cook PVI
Incumbent
John Cornyn
Republican · Running
⚡ Market Divergence

Polymarket implies the Republican has a 55% chance of holding the seat, while Cook and Sabato both rate this race Likely R. Worth watching for either a rating movement or a market correction.

▸ Watch

Cook: Likely R (Apr 13, 2026); Sabato: Likely R (Mar 4, 2026). Cornyn faces serious primary challenge from AG Ken Paxton. R+6 PVI.

Top contenders

John Cornyn
Republican
● Incumbent

Republican candidate for the Texas U.S. Senate seat.

FEC Receipts — Cycle Total
$7,234,490
Through Mar 31, 2026
Source: FEC bulk data · api.open.fec.gov/v1/candidate/S2TX00106/
Ken Paxton
Republican
● Candidate

Republican candidate for the Texas U.S. Senate seat.

FEC Receipts — Cycle Total
$7,007,951
Through Mar 31, 2026
Source: FEC bulk data · api.open.fec.gov/v1/candidate/S6TX00388/
12-wk spend
James Talarico
Democrat
● Candidate

Democrat candidate for the Texas U.S. Senate seat.

FEC Receipts — Cycle Total
$40,284,109
Through Mar 31, 2026
Source: FEC bulk data · api.open.fec.gov/v1/candidate/S6TX00479/
12-wk spend

Republicans

John Cornyn
Republican
● Incumbent

Republican candidate for the Texas U.S. Senate seat.

FEC Receipts — Cycle Total
$7,234,490
Through Mar 31, 2026
Source: FEC bulk data · api.open.fec.gov/v1/candidate/S2TX00106/
Ken Paxton
Republican
● Candidate

Republican candidate for the Texas U.S. Senate seat.

FEC Receipts — Cycle Total
$7,007,951
Through Mar 31, 2026
Source: FEC bulk data · api.open.fec.gov/v1/candidate/S6TX00388/
12-wk spend
Wesley Hunt
Republican
● Filed with FEC

Federally registered candidate for the Texas U.S. Senate seat. No editorial profile available.

FEC Receipts — Cycle Total
$2,071,562
Through Mar 31, 2026
Source: FEC bulk data · api.open.fec.gov/v1/candidate/S6TX00511/

Democrats

James Talarico
Democrat
● Candidate

Democrat candidate for the Texas U.S. Senate seat.

FEC Receipts — Cycle Total
$40,284,109
Through Mar 31, 2026
Source: FEC bulk data · api.open.fec.gov/v1/candidate/S6TX00479/
12-wk spend
Jasmine Crockett
Democrat
● Filed with FEC

Federally registered candidate for the Texas U.S. Senate seat. No editorial profile available.

FEC Receipts — Cycle Total
$11,092,295
Through Mar 31, 2026
Source: FEC bulk data · api.open.fec.gov/v1/candidate/S6TX00552/
12-wk spend
Colin Allred
Democrat
● Filed with FEC

Federally registered candidate for the Texas U.S. Senate seat. No editorial profile available.

FEC Receipts — Cycle Total
$7,628,922
Through Mar 31, 2026
Source: FEC bulk data · api.open.fec.gov/v1/candidate/S4TX00722/
12-wk spend

Other parties

Ted Brown
Libertarian
● Candidate

Libertarian candidate for the Texas U.S. Senate seat. Federal filing not yet detected in current FEC bulk extract.

FEC Receipts — Cycle Total
Not yet filed with FEC
Source: FEC bulk data · through 2026-03-31 (Q1 2026)

27 additional FEC filers excluded as long-tail (no editorial listing, not the seat incumbent, and under $1M raised). They remain in the database and can be surfaced via the FEC API directly.